Uncertainty About the End of the International Recession
The cyclical downturn of the world economy has been sharper than expected. After the timely end of the Gulf war confidence and final demand have not strengthened enough as to stop the cumulative decline. A number of countries (e. g., U. S., U. K., Finland, Sweden) are currently in deep recession, in others special stimulating factors (effect of German unification) are becoming weaker. Forecasts for OECD area GDP in 1991 have to be revised downwards by 1 percentage point, those for inflation even by 1½ percentage points. A likely GDP growth rate of 1 percent in 1991 should mark the cyclical trough for the OECD area. The rebound of activity expected for the second half of the year should gain momentum in 1992.
Unsicherheit über das Ende der Weltrezession; Uncertainty About the End of the International Recession
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