English, Article edition: Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005 Markus Marterbauer

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Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005
Author
  • Markus Marterbauer
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • Real GDP is projected to advance at a modest 1.5 percent in the current year. In the last few months, uncertainty has mounted about the further trend notably in manufacturing. The outlook for GDP growth of 2¼ percent in 2005 is particularly vague given the recent mixed signals from leading indicators. Employment growth remains insufficient against a strong increase in labour supply, with unemployment rising to a total of nearly 250,000.
  • Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005 Austria
  • RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2004:i:4:p:271-272
  • Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.
  • RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2004:i:2:p:43-53
Language
  • English
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