The Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Foreign Exchange Turbulences Add to Cyclical Risks
For the next twelve months or so, the Austrian economy is expected to stay on a modest growth track of 2 percent annual rate. A significant acceleration in 1993 over 1992, as assumed in earlier forecasts, is now considered unlikely. Sluggishness abroad and currency devaluations of major trading partners weaken the outlook for Austrian exports as well as for tourism demand. Merchandise exports are unlikely to rise by more than 3 percent p. a. implying slight losses of market shares; expected volume gains of 1 percent in tourism exports are much smaller than those registered over the last years. Domestic demand will continue to provide firm support to activity. With an estimated increase of 2½ percent in 1993 consumption may again outpace private disposable incomes. The effective revaluation of the schilling will keep down import prices and thus facilitate further deceleration of inflation. In 1993, the effects of the higher mineral oil tax and of other price hikes will have passed through and the annual rate may subside from 4 percent to 3½ percent or less. With no major shifts in the demand components to be expected the current account should stay in small surplus.
Prognose für 1992 und 1993. Währungsturbulenzen erhöhen die Konjunkturrisiken; The Economic Outlook for 1992 and 1993: Foreign Exchange Turbulences Add to Cyclical Risks
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