Economic Growth Picking Up after Phase of Weakness. Medium-Term Global Economic Outlook until 2012
The forecast is based on the following assumptions about the development of important variables until 2012: the euro exchange rate will stabilise at 1.60 $, oil prices will rise only marginally until 2012, real estate and share prices will rebound again as from 2009, the key interest rate in the USA will remain at the low level of 2 percent until 2009 and will be raised gradually to 4 percent thereafter, whereas in the euro area it will be around 4 percent over the entire forecast period. On these conditions world trade growth should average 7.2 percent annually between 2007 and 2012, an acceleration by ½ percentage point from the 2000-2007 period. Global production should expand at an annual rate of 4.1 percent until 2012 (2000-2007 +3.8 percent). Growth will moderate until 2009, however, owing to the international financial crisis and rising commodity prices, but will accelerate noticeably in the years thereafter. The US economy is set to grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent until 2012, well below the 2.4 percent recorded during 2000-2007. In Germany and Japan, by contrast, growth will gather speed over the medium term, to +1.7 percent and +1.8 percent, respectively (2000-2007 +1.2 percent and +1.5 percent, respectively). This development, coupled with the undervalued dollar exchange rate, will enable a substantial reduction in the global current account imbalances. Europe will see the catching-up process in the new EU member countries continue, with their economies set to expand by 4.7 percent on average until 2012, more than twice the rate expected in the EU 15 (+1.9 percent).
Weltwirtschaft Finanzkrise USA Japan Deutschland Mittelfristige Prognose
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