Labor Force Projections for Austria and its Länder: 1996-2050
This article is the result of a joint research and forecasting effort of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and the Austrian Central Statistical Office (ÖSTAT). The projection of the labor force participation rates was performed by WIFO based on the WIFO database of the Austrian labor force. The breakdown of activity rates by Länder (NUTS 2) draws on census data of 1991. The long-term demographic forecasts were undertaken by ÖSTAT. The study includes six labor force projections: one main (medium) variant, two fertility and two migration scenarios, and one variant in which 1996 activity rates were used as constants, to allow calculating sensitivy tests which clarify the impact of demographic vis-à-vis behavioral effects upon labor supply. According to the main (medium) variant of the labor force projection, labor supply will rise from 3.65 million in 1996, the base year of the projection, to 3.80 million in 2012 (a plus of 4.1 percent over 1996). In the long run labor supply will decline due to demographic reasons. Around 2022, the labor force will be once again down to the level of 1996. In 2030, the Austrian labor force should amount to 3.37 million (–7.6 percent versus 1996) and thus correspond to the level of 1986. The population aging process is reflected in the development of labor supply. The proportion and absolute number of young workers will decline, while the number of older workers will increase. The demographic structure of the labor force bears the mark of the baby-boom generation of the late 1950s and early 1960s and the ensuing baby-bust generation of the 1970s. The baby-boom generation is now around 35 years old and will have retired by 2030, given today's retirement regulations. In the medium term, labor supply will increase in all nine Austrian Länder (NUTS-2 regions). The peak will be reached in the east (with the exception of Vienna) and south in 2006, in Vienna and the west around 2015. By 2030, the labor force will be below the 1996 level in all Länder. After 2030, labor supply will continue to decline everywhere except in Vienna, where it will remain more or less stable.
Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskräfteangebotes. Vorausschätzung 1996/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesländern; Labor Force Projections for Austria and its Länder: 1996-2050
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