The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks and the determination of the exchange rate
This paper shows how sign restrictions can be used to identify symmetric and asymmetric shocks in a simple two-country structural VAR. Specifically, the e??ects of symmetric and asymmetric supply, demand and monetary policy shocks as well as pure exchange rate shocks are estimated. The results can be used to deal with two issues. First, it is possible to estimate the relative importance of symmetric, asymmetric and pure exchange rate shocks across two countries or areas, which provides information about the degree of business cycle synchronization. Second, it is also possible to evaluate the relative importance of these shocks in determining exchange rate fluctuations, which can deliver answers to questions like ’Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or source of shocks?’. Evidence is provided for the UK versus the Euro area and compared with the US as a benchmark.
exchange rates, symmetric and asymmetric shocks, vector autoregressions
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