English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model P. JACOB; G. PEERSMAN

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model
Author
  • P. JACOB
  • G. PEERSMAN
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This paper presents empirical evidence on the stochastic driving forces of the US trade balance. In an estimated two-country DSGE model, we .find that investment- specific technology shocks have the strongest impact on the volatility of cyclical trade balance .fluctuations, especially when the shocks are domestic and considered over longer forecast-horizons. At shorter horizons, US and foreign inter-temporal shocks that generate co-movement between consumption and investment, have an impact com- parable to that of the investment-specific technology shocks. In contrast, shocks to US public spending and neutral technology - both forces traditionally used to explain trade balance fluctuations - hardly explain the volatility.
  • US Trade Balance, New Open Economy Macroeconomics, Bayesian Inference, DSGE Estimation
  • RePEc:rug:rugwps:08/​544
Language
  • English
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