English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Population Ageing and Economic Growth in Seven OECD Countries Maxime Fougère; Marcel Mérette

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Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Population Ageing and Economic Growth in Seven OECD Countries
Author
  • Maxime Fougère
  • Marcel Mérette
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • It is well known that over the next several decades, there will be significant changes in the age structure of OECD populations. According to recent demographic projections by the United Nations, the share of the old-aged population is expected to double, on average, over the next 50 years in the major industrialised countries. These demographic changes may have significant fiscal and economic consequences and pose important public policy challenges for the countries involved. In this paper, we extend the Hviding and Mérette (1998) computable overlapping-generation (OLG) models for seven industrialised countries in order to examine the impact of population ageing on economic growth. The model is populated by a series of 15 rational overlapping generations that optimally choose life patterns of consumption and bequest. The modified version incorporates endogenous growth, which is generated by the accumulation of both physical and human capital. Typically, a generation invests mostly in human capital when young, and in physical capital when middle-aged. Our results show that estimates of the long-run economic effects of population ageing are significantly altered when the model features endogenous growth. The results suggest that population ageing could create more opportunities for future generations to invest in human capital formation, which would stimulate economic growth and reduce significantly the apprehended negative impact of ageing on output per capita. C’est un fait reconnu qu’au cours des prochaines décennies, il y aura d’importants changements démographiques pour les pays de l’OCDE. Les Nations Unies anticipent que la part des personnes âgées (65 ans et plus) sur l’ensemble de la population doublera au cours des 50 prochaines années dans les pays industrialisés. Ces changements démographiques pourraient avoir des conséquences fiscales et économiques importantes, et mettent en lumière les défis que devra relever les politiques publiques des pays concernés. Dans cet article, nous introduisions un second actif (capital humain) au modèle de Hviding and Mérette (1998), ce qui permet d’endogéniser la croissance économique. Hviding et Mérette ont construit pour l’OCDE un modèle numérique à générations imbriquées qui a servi à examiner les effets du vieillissement des populations et de différentes réformes fiscales de 7 pays industrialisés. Le modèle est peuplé par 15 générations imbriquées qui optimisent leurs profils de consommation, d’épargne et d’héritage. Dans la version modifiée, la croissance économique est générée par l’accumulation de capital physique et de capital humain. Nos résultats montrent que les trajectoires de court et de long terme de l’output per capita sont significativement modifiées quand la croissance économique est déterminée endogènement. Le vieillissement de la population crée des opportunités pour les jeunes d’investir en capital humain, ce qui stimule la croissance économique et réduit significativement l’impact négatif appréhendé du veillissement des populations sur l’output per capita.
  • RePEc:fca:wpfnca:1998-03
Language
  • English
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