English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models G. LANINE; R. VANDER VENNET

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/14467
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Failure prediction in the Russian bank sector with logit and trait recognition models
Author
  • G. LANINE
  • R. VANDER VENNET
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • The Russian banking sector experienced considerable turmoil in the late 1990s, especially around the Russian banking crisis in 1998. The question is what types of banks are vulnerable to shocks and whether or not bank-specific characteristics can be used to predict vulnerability to failures. In this study we employ a parametric logit model and a nonparametric trait recognition approach to predict failures among Russian commercial banks. We test the predictive power of both models based on their prediction accuracy using holdout samples. Both models performed better than the benchmark; the trait recognition approach outperformed logit in both the original and the holdout samples. As expected liquidity plays an important role in bank failure prediction, but also asset quality and capital adequacy turn out to be important determinants of failure.
  • Russian banks, bank failure prediction, logit model, trait recognition, forecasting accuracy
  • RePEc:rug:rugwps:05/​329
Language
  • English
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