Spontaneous shifts in output originating within the business sector
are an important factor in aggregate fluctuations. This paper
develops a simple two-component decomposition of the movement
of real GNP. One component is the path that GNP would have
followed in order to deliver the volume of goods and services
actually taken by consumers, government, and the rest of the
world. The second component, noise, is the residual between
actual GNP and the theoretical calculation. The two components
are of roughly the same size, but noise has more of its power at
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