Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the U.S.: A Vector-Autoregressive Model
Naci H. Mocan
Using recent developments in time-series econometrics, this
paper investigates the behavior of fertility over the business
cycle. The sex-specific unemployment rates, the divorce rate and
the fertility rate are shown to be governed by stochastic trends.
Furthermore, fertility is determined to be co-integrated with the
divorce and unemployment rates.
In the bivariate vector-autoregressions between fertility
and unemployment, an increase in the female or male unemployment
rates generate a decrease in fertility, which confirms the
findings of previous time-series research concerning the
procyclical behavior of fertility. However, when the models
include the divorce rate and the proportion of young marriages as
additional regressors, shocks to the unemployment rates bring
about an increase in fertility, implying the countercyclicality
In order to set up a list of libraries that you have access to,
you must first login
or sign up.
Then set up a personal list of libraries from your profile page by
clicking on your user name at the top right of any screen.