The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market
N. Gregory Mankiw
David N. Weil
This paper examines the impact of major demographic changes on the
housing market in the United States. The entry of the Baby Boom generation
into its house-buying years is found to be the major cause of the increase
in real housing prices in the l97Os. Since the Baby Bust generation is now
entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the
1990s than in any time in the past forty years. If the historical relation
between housing demand and housing prices continues into the future, real
housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.
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