Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election
James A. Brander
This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign.
Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and
secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were
reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade
Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative
popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices
does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of
In order to set up a list of libraries that you have access to,
you must first login
or sign up.
Then set up a personal list of libraries from your profile page by
clicking on your user name at the top right of any screen.