English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe David E. Bloom; David Canning; Günther Fink; ...

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/140913
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe
Author
  • David E. Bloom
  • David Canning
  • Günther Fink
  • Jocelyn E. Finlay
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.
  • RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14820
Language
  • English
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