U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models
Alan J. Auerbach
Laurence J. Kotlikoff
This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with
respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S.
saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon
altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the
different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S.
saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S.
national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a
significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings
suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after
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