A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940
Jeffrey A. Miron
The paper derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the
United States for 1884-1940. This index improves upon existing measures of
industrial production by excluding indirect proxies of industrial activity, by
only using component series that are consistent over time, and by not making
ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has
more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively
unimportant seasonal fluctuations, and has cyclical turning points that are
grossly similar to but subtly different from existing series.
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