English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Bayesian Methods for Completing Data in Space-time Panel Models Llano, Carlos; Polasek, Wolfgang; Sellner, Richard

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/139661
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Bayesian Methods for Completing Data in Space-time Panel Models
Author
  • Llano, Carlos
  • Polasek, Wolfgang
  • Sellner, Richard
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a united framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the 'indicators'). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cross-sectional and panel data and compares the classical and Bayesian estimation methods. We outline the error covariance structure in a spatial context and derive the BLUE for the ML and Bayesian MCMC estimation. Finally, we apply the procedure to Spanish regional GDP data between 2000-2004. We assume that only NUTS-2 GDP is known and predict GDPat NUTS-3 level by using socio-economic and spatial information available at NUTS-3. The spatial neighborhood is defined by either km distance, travel-time, contiguity and trade relationships. After running some sensitivity analysis, we present the forecast accuracy criteria comparing the predicted with the observed values.
  • Interpolation, Spatial panel econometrics, MCMC, Spatial Chow-Lin, Missing regional data, Spanish provinces, 'Polycentric-periphery' relationship
  • RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:241
Language
  • English
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