English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: EMU, The Euro and The European Policy Mix Jonathan Coppel; Martine Durand; Ignazio Visco

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/136445
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • EMU, The Euro and The European Policy Mix
Author
  • Jonathan Coppel
  • Martine Durand
  • Ignazio Visco
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • One year ago most economic observers predicted that "fundamentals" were such that the euro was set to appreciate. In the event, the opposite has occurred. This has rekindled a debate on how well foreign exchange markets reflect fundamental determinants and led to calls for greater exchange rate stability, possibly through the introduction of formal exchange rate target zones. The first part of the paper focuses on these issues. It also looks at the euro’s prospects as an international currency. To give a better sense of perspective, the paper compares recent exchange rate movements and measures of volatility with longerterm trends. The article argues that the difference in cyclical conditions in the United States and the euro area seems to have been a dominant factor driving the sizeable euro depreciation since early 1999, although when evaluated against longer term trends it appears much less dramatic; the euro is presently at about its past 5-year average level expressed in nominal effective terms ... Il y a un an, la plupart des observateurs économiques prévoyaient qu'au vu des "fondamentaux" l'euro allait s'apprécier. En l’occurrence le contraire a eu lieu. Ceci a ravivé le débat sur la capacité des marchés de changes à refléter les déterminants fondamentaux des économies et a donné lieu à des appels pour une plus grande stabilité des taux de change, passant par exemple par l'introduction formelle de zones cibles. La première partie de ce document porte sur ces questions. Elle considère également les perspectives pour l'euro à devenir une monnaie internationale. Afin de mieux appréhender les évolutions récentes de taux de change et leur volatilité, ces dernières sont comparées à leurs tendances de long terme. Le document montre que la divergence de position conjoncturelle entre les États-Unis et la zone euro semble avoir été un facteur déterminant dans la dépréciation importante de l'euro depuis le début de 1999, même si, sur plus longue période, cette dépréciation apparaît ...
  • EMU, exchange rate regimes, exchange rates, policy mix, UME, régime de taux de change, taux de change, dosage de la politique économique
  • RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:232-en
Language
  • English
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