English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth Rudiger Ahrend

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/136037
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth
Author
  • Rudiger Ahrend
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia’s recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. It examines in detail the main drivers of growth, as well as the main developments and policies that have been underlying it. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than most analyses have recognised. The oil sector’s contribution to growth has hitherto been severely underestimated as official data do not account for transfer pricing and thus fail to reflect fully the importance of the hydrocarbon sector in the Russian economy. The paper further argues that prudent postcrisis fiscal policy, by balancing the federal budget over the oil-price cycle, has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that - given its economic structure - Russia is bound to ... Bilan de la croissance après la crise en Russie Cet article analyse en profondeur la croissance économique récente en Russie afin de comprendre les perspectives de sa continuité. L’article examine en détail les principaux moteurs de la croissance, ainsi que les principales évolutions et politiques sous-jacentes. Un des principaux résultats est que le rôle du secteur pétrolier, en particulier les compagnies pétrolières privées, a été considérablement plus important comme moteur de la croissance depuis 2001 que ne l’ont constaté la plupart des analystes. La contribution à la croissance du secteur pétrolier a jusqu’à présent été grandement sous-estimée à cause des données officielles qui ne prennent pas en compte l’utilisation des prix de transfert, et par conséquent ne reflètent pas entièrement l’importance du secteur des hydrocarbures dans l’économie russe. Cet article fait également le point sur la politique budgétaire prudente d’après la crise, qui en gardant le budget fédéral équilibré sur l’ensemble du cycle des cours ...
  • economic growth, croissance économique, transition, transition, fiscal policy, politique budgétaire, monetary policy, politique monétaire, real exchange rates, gas, gaz, Russia, Russie, capital flight, natural resources, dutch disease, resource curse, oil, property rights, diversification, taux de change réel, fuite des capitaux, ressources naturelles, syndrome néerlandais, malédiction des ressources, pétrole, droit de propriété, diversification
  • RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:404-en
Language
  • English
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