English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: A Post Mortem on OECD Short-term Projections from 1982 to 1987 B. Ballis

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/135610
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • A Post Mortem on OECD Short-term Projections from 1982 to 1987
Author
  • B. Ballis
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both through the period under consideration and between countries. But the average absolute error in GNP over the entire 1982/​87 period was less than 1 percentage point. The biggest errors were made in the first half of the period and were more important for the smaller countries. An attempt is made to assess the likely impact of differences between assumed and realised economic policies, energy prices and exchange rates on the size and direction of the projection errors ... L'étude présente examine la qualité des projections faites par l'OCDE de 1982 à 1987. Si le sens des évolutions a été correctement prévu, les erreurs de projection sur la croissance et l'inflation ont varié de façon significative à travers à la fois la période et les pays concernés. Mais l'erreur moyenne absolue de la projection sur la croissance pour toute la période 1982/​87 a été inférieure à 1 pourcent. Les erreurs les plus importantes ont été faites pendant la première partie de la periode en question et elles ont été plus marquées dans le cas des petits pays. L'étude examine l'incidence qu'ont pu avoir les écarts observés entre les hypothèses et les réalisations en matière de politique économique, de coût de l'energie et de taux de changes sur, à la fois, l'importance et la direction des erreurs ...
  • RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:65-en
Language
  • English
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