English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: The NAIRU in Japan: Measurement and Its Implications Fumihira Nishizaki

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/135390
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • The NAIRU in Japan: Measurement and Its Implications
Author
  • Fumihira Nishizaki
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • The NAIRU is estimated by using the Japanese data. There are three major findings. The NAIRU has been increasing modestly since 1970. Unlike the standard specification adopted in many OECD countries it can be estimated more precisely when the unemployment rate with a several-quarter lead is used. Hysteresis or “speed limit” effects are also detected. These findings lead to the following implications. Structural reform in the labor market should be pursued. Seeking for alternative labor market indicators which move ahead of inflation will be useful. Macroeconomic policy aimed at rapidly reducing unemployment could be costly in terms of inflation ... Cet article fournit une estimation du NAIRU à partir des données japonaises. Trois conclusions principales peuvent être tirées. Le NAIRU a légèrement augmenté depuis 1970. Contrairement aux spécifications généralement retenues pour de nombreux pays de l’OCDE, la mesure obtenue du NAIRU est plus précise si le taux de chômage pris en compte dans l’estimation est celui observé avec plusieurs trimestres d’avance. Enfin, l’existence d’effets d’hystérèse ou de “speed limit” a aussi été détectée. Ces résultats suggèrent les enseignements suivants. Il semble nécessaire de poursuivre la réforme structurelle du marché du travail. Il serait utile de chercher des indicateurs du marché du travail permettant d’anticiper les variations d’inflation. Utiliser une politique macro-économique pour réduire le chômage rapidement pourrait être coûteux en termes d’inflation ...
  • RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:173-en
Language
  • English
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