POLÍTICA FISCAL, NÍVEL TECNOLÓGICO E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL: TEORIA E EVIDÊNCIA EMPÍRICA
Luciana Cavalcante de Assis
The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of changes in fiscal policy and in technological level over the growth economic rate in Brazil, as well as, to identify the optimal level of taxation of the economy empirically, based on the model' version of endogenous growth proposed by Barro (1990). To capture the dynamic interactions among the variables, we decided to use a vectorial auto regressive model (VAR) for the econometrics analysis, with annual data from 1951 to 2000. The main empirical results indicate that: i) shocks in the ratio public/private capital, tax burden and technological level generate cyclical effects on the GDP growth rate in Brazil; ii) the tax burden, used to finance the public expenses, it causes negative impact on the growth rate of the Brazilian economy when it surpasses the optimal level of 25% of the GDP.
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