CRIAÇÃO DE VALOR ATRAVÉS DA ESTRATÉGIA DE PROCRASTINAÇÃO
Leonardo Fernando Cruz Basso
This research considers a mathematical model for pricing the procrastination option. The concept of procrastination will be discussed from the point of view of Psychology, Economy, Finance and Strategy. The maximum limit of the strategy of procrastination will be investigated, considering the cash flow loss due to the possible first move of the competition and considering the benefit of the reduction of uncertainty due to the information that becomes available as time passes. A simulation will be presented aiming to establish the benefits of the optimum exercise of the option. The results, amongst others, suggest that one must delay projects in environments in which the costs of procrastination, measured by a salience parameter, are low; the factor of decline of the cash flows of projects is low and the increment of risk in the short term is high. The limitations of the study and the applicability of the model for the Brazilian reality are also discussed.
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