POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA ÓTIMA EM UM CONTEXTO DE ELEVADA DÍVIDA PÚBLICA: O CASO DO BRASIL
José Franco Medeiros de Morais
Joaquim Pinto de Andrade
Maria Luiza Falcão Silva
This paper calculates the optimal monetary policy rule for Brazilian economy, assuming that monetary authority adopts a flexible inflation targeting regime in which, besides the inflation target, there is also a target for public debt/GDP ratio. According to the open economy proposed model, risk premium is generated by high public debt. After estimating the parameters, Bellman equation is applied to determine the optimal monetary policy rule. Results suggest that when a target for public debt/GDP is taken into account in the loss function, monetary policy responds less aggressively to inflation shocks, while easing monetary policy becomes optimal response to positive shocks to public debt and risk premium.
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