FATORES POLÍTICOS E INSTITUCIONAIS: IMPACTOS SOBRE PARADAS BRUSCAS DE FINANCIAMENTO EXTERNO
Cristiano Prado Martins Barbosa
The literature of international economy recognizes the importance of political factors over the national economy's performance and over the likelihood of external crises. Some recent studies analyze the impact of these factors over the financial crises and speculative attacks, but little has been told so far about the impacts over the likelihood of a sudden stop. The first objective of this paper is to complement this lack in the literature. The second objective is to extend the political economy's horizon analyzing the political-ideological issue jointly with the national institutions that regulate the Executive's power and succession. So, this paper discusses how political and institutional factors affect the likelihood of a sudden stop of external financing. After analyzing a wide panel database using the LOGIT method, we conclude that political variables are relevant to determine the likelihood of a sudden stop only if variables that measure the extent of executive power and national democracy are included. Variables that regulate the transitional process and the extent of Executive's power showed high significant statistical and absolute impacts on the probability of an event.
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