A RESTRIÇÃO EXTERNA COMO FATOR LIMITANTE DO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO BRASILEIRO: UM TESTE EMPÍRICO
Antonio Tiago Loureiro Araújo dos Santos
Gilberto Tadeu Lima
Veridiana Ramos da Silva Carvalho
This paper draws upon original works by A. Thirlwall and some recent developments of them, particularly those made by J. C. Moreno-Brid, on the balance-of- payments constraints to growth in several countries. It is intended, by means of new empirical tests, to evaluate the specification of such a constraint that better suit to the brazilian case and to test whether it has been really binding. New robust evidence is found that economic growth in Brazil was actually balance-of payments-constrained in the 1948- 2004 period. However, unlike what intuition could lead one to expect a priori, the model specification that incorporates capital flows and external debt dynamics does not differ much from the original specification of Thirlwall´s Law regarding a softening of the external constraint.
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