English, Article, Journal or magazine article edition: A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators Robert H. McGuckin; Ataman Ozyildirim; Victor Zarnowitz

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/11628
Physical Description
  • preprint
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators
Author
  • Robert H. McGuckin
  • Ataman Ozyildirim
  • Victor Zarnowitz
Physical Description
  • preprint
Notes
  • Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. While there are other approaches to forecasting, the U.S. leading index has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the index more timely. The new index significantly outperforms its less timely counterpart and offers substantial gains in real-time out-of-sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity and industrial production. It provides timely and accurate ex-ante information for predicting, not only the business cycle turning points, but the monthly changes in the economy.
  • business cycle, forecasting, indicators, leading index, times series
  • RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0301
Language
  • English
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