DETERMINANTES DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO REAL NO BRASIL: 1971-2002
Giordano Bruno Braz de Pinho Matos
Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende
real exchange rate, purchasing-power parity, international liquidity
The theoretical and empirical international trade literature suggests that there is long-term valuation/devaluation of the real exchange rate in the developed/undeveloped economies. We argue that the real exchange rate is affected by: i) intercountry differentials of the services sector development; and, ii) non-neutral characteristic of the international financial system, demonstrated in the Post-Keynesian approach. An equation for the Brazilian real exchange rate was estimated in this paper (1971-2002) and the international liquidity variable and a proxy variable for the differentials of the services sector development were included in the equation. The econometric procedures were based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen methods. The results do not reject the hypothesis put forward in this paper.
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