English, Article edition: A NEW MEASURE OF US POTENTIAL OUTPUT, INFLATION FORECASTS, AND MONETARY POLICY RULES CHARLES HARVIE; HYEON-SEUNG HUH

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Bookmark: http://trove.nla.gov.au/version/108805
Physical Description
  • article
Language
  • English

Edition details

Title
  • A NEW MEASURE OF US POTENTIAL OUTPUT, INFLATION FORECASTS, AND MONETARY POLICY RULES
Author
  • CHARLES HARVIE
  • HYEON-SEUNG HUH
Physical Description
  • article
Notes
  • This paper proposes a new measure of potential output for the USA. The key idea is that potential output is constructed as the level of output which would correspond to a forecast of no inflation change over the policy horizon. The resultant output gap has a clear interpretation as a measure to gauge future inflationary pressures. It also exhibits better predictability for future inflation changes in comparison with previous output gap measures. Simulation results further demonstrate its usefulness as a feedback variable in the Taylor monetary policy rule for interest rates. Copyright © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.
  • RePEc:bla:manchs:v:77:y:2009:i:5:p:611-631
Language
  • English
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